Yeah, I know the Oscars have dramatically fallen off because most of the common folk realize celebs love to pat themselves on the back more than they really give two farts about anyone else. But whether it be on your couch with streaming or in the theater, you probably have consumed a movie or two last year. Or if you’re like me, I think I’ve watched just about every movie that has been nominated this year, so like it or not…movies are here to stay. Maybe I’m too new to this whole evaluating movie thing, but I’ve learned to gain an appreciation to what different directors, writers, cinematographers, actors, etc. bring to each script and picture. So, if you’d like to read my predictions and thoughts, please continue…it’s been a joy and I look forward to what 2023 will bring
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chou, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
My pick: Angela Bassett. Selfishly I want someone to win from the MCU. I think these movies often get poo-poo’d away because they’re “just comic book movies”, but some wonderful acting/writing happens, and she was truly magnetic in this movie
Most likely: Jamie Lee Curtis. If you haven’t seen EEAAO, try to…the entire film deserves every award it receives this year.
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of the Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
My pick: Top Gun: Maverick. If you saw this in the theater, you know why it should win. It was a film made to be seen on the big screen and you felt the sound in your bones
Most likely: Not sure on this one, it could go to The Batman as well, which wouldn’t upset me any
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tar
My pick: The Batman. Yeah, it wasn’t nominated but it should’ve been so that’s why I’m picking it. But if we’re going with the list…Bardo. Some of the shots are wicked.
Most likely: All Quiet on the Western Front. The Oscars love their war movies, so sweeping shots of landscape, strewn bodies should do it
Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger At the Gate
My pick: Haulout. It’s impactful with about 10 words spoken. Whatever your views on climate change aside, to see the effect of melting ice on these animals is jarring. It’s a beautiful film I highly recommend.
Most likely: The Elephant Whisperers. It is beautiful, touching, heartwarming so I’m sure some Oscar voters will feel the sway towards this film. Can’t be mad at it winning, it is fun, cute, and a wonderful message.
Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of the Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
My pick: Avatar: The Way of the Water. Whatever your views on this (not so great) film, you can’t deny the CGI is insane. This should be the ONLY award it wins, but it would deserve it.
Most likely: Avatar: The Way of the Water. It just should, the visual effects for this movie exceed the others, but I wouldn’t be shocked at All Quiet sneaking in either.
Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
My pick: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. It was a GREAT movie. One of my favorite movies of the year, in fact, but I could make a strong case for Marcel as well (ha, rhymes) with the messaging, voice acting and CGI
Most likely: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. The Oscars love weird stuff, especially Nazi weird stuff and this movie delivers. You can’t deny the unique spin on the tale we only have Disney experience.
Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake & I Think I Believe It
My pick: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse. If you haven’t seen it, see it. If you suffer from depression, see it. It’s extraordinary. The voice actors used are amazing. I was bawling by the time it ended.
Most likely: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse. I think it’s far and away the best film on that list. I think the voters will take the mental health subject and run with it.
Supporting Actor
Brendon Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
My pick: Judd Hirsch. I wasn’t a huge fan of The Fabelmans, but Hirsch’s scene can’t be overlooked. He blew in like a tornado and out with the same speed. He was a huge force in that movie.
Most likely: Ke Huy Quan. I think everything is leaning EEAAO direction. He’s a calming force in a whirlwind of a movie. He’s solid and other times heartbreaking to watch. Can’t be mad if he’s the winner.
International Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl
My pick: All Quiet on the Western Front. Much like EEAAO, it has the IT factor looked at in most Oscar noms. I don’t think they should sleep on Close, but I feel confident in All Quiet
Most likely: All Quiet on the Western Front. I’m not sure what they’ll go for here. Epic war movie…emotional drama with Close…but Argentina, 1985 could slide in and surprise a few.
Live-Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
My pick: Night Ride. I’d like to see this underdog win. It’s zany, it’s timely, it’s poignant. I enjoyed it thoroughly even though it was seemingly predictable
Most likely: Le Pupille. It’s a bit larger scale. Would scratch the artsy itch of some Oscar voters.
Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
My pick: Everything Everywhere All At Once. If you’ve seen the movie the costumes won’t leave your memory any time soon. Plus, all of this on an indie budget. Even if you forget all the other characters, Jobu’s outfits should win this category alone.
Most likely: Babylon? EEAAO? Elvis? I honestly can’t figure out which one is most likely. A strong case could be made for any of them. The costumes are works of art in each one of these films
Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness
My pick: The Banshees of Inisherin. Taking the Irish Civil War and using a broken friendship to analogize it is brilliant. The subtly of highlighting a tragic event in Ireland’s history using dark humor as a palatable cover should be rewarded.
Most likely: The Banshees of Inisherin. There’s a reason it’s nominated for several acting, directing awards on this list and that is in huge part due to the script.
Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
My pick: Women Talking. Taking a book on a heavy subject and adapting it to the big screen is a tremendous process. Taking a book and making an Oscar nominated film that is captivating on its dialogue and acting is next level.
Most likely: Women Talking. Like I said…it’s a heavy subject and Oscars likes taking social stands. The script is electric between a group of haunted women terrorized in a religious sect.
Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
My pick: The Batman. Yeah yeah, I know, but IT SHOULD’VE BEEN NOMINATED FOR THIS CATEGORY. So, I’ll pick All Quiet on the Western Front. The music is HAUNTING. Certain scores used over and over through the film fill you with impending dread. I could feel the doom in my gut, which is exactly how one should feel when dealing with anything WW1
Most likely: The Fabelmans. John Williams lose a nomination? Unlikely. Sometimes name recognition means too much with the voters, but let’s hope they buck tradition.
Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
My pick: Everything Everywhere All At Once. Weaving about 700 stories into one over-arching story was masterful editing. You thought you felt lost until you understood to theme of the story and why it was puzzled together like so.
Most likely: EEAAO. Momentum is behind this movie so at this point any category it is up for; it has a strong chance of winning.
Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
My pick: All That Breathes. I’m a sucker for animal rescue type stories. Against the backdrop of unrest in India is a beautiful story of brothers who rescue the helpless animals suffering from the country’s pollution problem
Most likely: Navalny. This was second on my list for picks. It’s engrossing, it’s timely, and it’s heartbreaking. He’s an enigmatic leader who faced insurmountable odds in a country that was bound and determined to break him.
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of the Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
My pick: Babylon. No matter what I thought about this movie (way too long, poor man’s Casino), you can’t argue against the production design. The opening 20mins of the movie win this category, in my opinion. It had EVERYTHING thought out.
Most likely: Not sure. I’ll stick with Babylon because if not for the opening scene, then the scene where a dozen movies are in production make it a strong contender.
Original Song
Applause-Tell It Like a Woman
Hold My Hand-Top Gun: Maverick
Life Me Up-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Naatu Naatu-RRR
This Is a Life-EEAAO
My pick: Lift Me Up. This was more than a song for movie. This was Ryan Coogler’s song to honor the passing of Chadwick Boseman. It was a memorial to him as an actor and friend. This song went beyond a movie melody.
Most likely: Naatu, Naatu. It went viral for a reason. You want to get up and master the dance even though you’ll fail…spectacularly, but it’s insanely beautiful.
Directing
The Banshees of Inisherin
EEAAO
The Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness
My pick: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin. Taking that script and directing it into a well-crafted story of the Irish Civil War through the lens of a friendship PLUS making it a comedy perfectly acted…please Academy, do it
Most likely: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans. The Academy vote against Spielberg or Williams? As much as I would love to see it, giving OG’s awards for existing still exists. Blah.
Lead Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
My pick: Brendan Fraser. He made The Whale. He was gut-wrenching to watch in that movie. Hard to watch, but that’s why I pick him. The movie was so/so, but his role was incredible.
Most likely: Austin Butler. Hasn’t he won just about all the awards leading up to the big event? He really does become Elvis and momentum is a thing come award season. Don’t be too shocked if Colin Farrell sweeps in for an upset though
Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
My pick: All Quiet on the Western Front. Those boys were fresh faced innocence when the war broke out and by the end looked like haunted ghosts by what they encountered on the battlefield. Subtleties like this make the makeup/hairstyle my favorite choice
Most likely: I could see it going The Whale or even The Batman. Fraser and Farrell make strong arguments for the award.
Lead Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tar
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, EEAAO
My pick: Cate Blanchett. She just melts into any role she takes on. She made her mental break riveting to watch. You hated her and pitied her all at the same time. She’s master class.
Most likely: Michelle Yeoh. Again…momentum is a thing, and this movie has it. Plus, how can you not love her? You want her to fight, you want her to win…and maybe she will.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of the Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
My pick: EEAAO. I know this movie was too chaotic for some, but the true meaning behind this story of a mother concerned with the distance growing between her, her life, and her child hits some of us more profoundly than others. I know my daughter and I cried when we watched it, and I wanted nothing more than to hold on to her and tell everyone I loved them after seeing it. That’s a great movie.
Most likely: EEAAO. The Oscars needs variety, it has the momentum, a wonderful cast and all at an indie budget. I can’t be mad at this movie bringing home the big one.
SIDE NOTE: As good as EEAAO is and should win…I think it should be said that Top Gun deserves it. If you went back to theaters this last year, a good chance rests on that movie being the reason. It was nostalgic, breathtaking, loud (in a good way), pure fun. There is a reason directors like Spielberg said Tom Cruise saved cinema in 2022. He knows how to put on a show. I’m not saying he’s owed an Oscar for that, but…he’s kind of owed an Oscar for this movie. And best movie would be great as a MASSIVE thank you.